Electoral
College Prediction Model Points To A Mitt Romney Win
In 2012
Two University of Colorado professors, one from
Boulder and one from Denver, have put together an
Electoral College forecast model to predict who will
win the 2012 presidential election and the result is
bad news for Barack Obama. The model points to a Mitt
Romney victory in 2012.
Ken Bickers from
CU-Boulder and Michael Berry from CU-Denver, the two
political science professors who devised the
prediction model, say that it has correctly forecast
every winner of the electoral race since
1980.
"Based on our
forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president
is in electoral trouble," Bickers said in a press
statement.
To predict the
race's outcome, the model uses economic indicators
from all 50 states and it shows 320 electoral votes
for Romney and 218 for Obama, according to The
Associated Press. The model also suggests that Romney
will win every state currently considered a swing
state which includes Colorado (4.7%),
Florida
(0.7%),
Minnesota (7.6%),
New
Hampshire (5.7%),
North
Carolina
(2.2%), Ohio
(1.9%),
Pennsylvania (5.2%),
Virginia (3.0%),
and Wisconsin (6.7%).
(Obama
received this percentage difference over
Romney.)
The professors'
model shows a very different picture than what current
data suggests. Currently, The Huffington Post's
Election Dashboard shows Obama with 257 electoral
votes to Romney's 191 with only six "tossup" states
including: Colorado (4.7%),
Florida
(0.7%),
Iowa (56.5%),
North Carolina
(2.2%), Ohio
(1.9%),
Virginia (3.0%).
Berry cautions
that just because the model has worked in the past,
doesn't mean it will work this time. "As scholars and
pundits well know, each election has unique elements
that could lead one or more states to behave in ways
in a particular election that the model is unable to
correctly predict," Berry said in a statement. Some of
those factors include the timeframe of the current
economic data used in the study (the data used was
taken five months before the November election, but
Berry and Bickers plan to update it with more current
data come September) as well as tight races. States
that are very close to a 50-50 split, the authors
warn, can fall in an unexpected direction.
According to
current data from The Huffington Post Election
Dashboard, there are at least 13 states that are
either dead heats or within a handful of percentage
points in either direction.
Currently
HuffPost's Pollster, tracking 403 national polls,
estimates Obama leading the tight race nationally with
46.3 percent to Romney's 45.2 percent.
This kind of
Electoral College model developed by the Bickers and
Berry is the only only one of its kind to include more
than one state-level measure of economic conditions --
both national unemployment rates as well as per capita
income, according to a press release about the study
from University of Colorado. Research suggested that
voters hold Democrats more responsible for
unemployment rates while Republicans are held more
responsible for per capita income.
"The apparent
advantage of being a Democratic candidate and holding
the White House disappears when the national
unemployment rate hits 5.6 percent," Berry said. To
which Bickers added, "The incumbency advantage enjoyed
by President Obama, though statistically significant,
is not great enough to offset high rates of
unemployment currently experienced in many of the
states."
Paul Ryan:
QE2 Risks Inflation
Back in 2010, Republican Vice Presidential
candidate Paul Ryan explained that the Federal
Reserves plan to purchase $600 billion worth of
securities -- known as QE2 -- was little more than
"sugar-high economics" that <a
href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-14/romney-ryan-see-fed-qe-as-inflation-risk-amid-low-prices.html"
target="_hplink">risked rising inflation and
weakening the dollar</a>. But instead the
opposite took place. According to Bloomberg:
<blockquote>"Since that prediction by Ryan, who
has been chosen by presumptive Republican presidential
nominee Mitt Romney to be his running mate, the dollar
has risen against major currencies and inflation has
stayed below the Fed's goal of 2
percent."</blockquote>
Christina
Romer: Unemployment Will Remain Below 8%
In early January of 2009, Christina Romer,
economic adviser to then President-elect Barack Obama,
made a prediction: massive government stimulus on the
order that would eventually be passed by Congress
would keep unemployment below 8 percent, reports <a
href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/10/AR2009011001999.html"
target="_hplink"><em>The Washington
Post</em></a>. Without it, unemployment
could reach as high as 9 percent. In July 2012,
unemployment edged up to <a href="www.bls.gov"
target="_hplink">8.3 percent</a>. It has not
gone below 8 percent since <a
href="http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=z1ebjpgk2654c1_&met_y=unemployment_rate&idim=country:US&fdim_y=seasonality:S&dl=en&hl=en&q=us+unemployment+rate#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=unemployment_rate&fdim_y=seasonality:S&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=country&idim=country:US&ifdim=country&tstart=984805200000&tend=1337227200000&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false"
target="_hplink">January 2009</a>.
Jim Cramer:
Obamacare Will Topple The Stock Market
On <a
href="http://mediamatters.org/blog/2010/03/22/dow-finishes-up-following-health-care-vote-pagi/162074"
target="_hplink">March 18, 2010</a>, Jim
Kramer stated on Larry Kudlow's program that Obamacare
would tank the stock market. The reform package was,
in his words, "the single greatest impediment to the
stock market going higher." On March 23 of that year,
according to <a
href="http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20000981-503544.html"
target="_hplink">CBS News</a>, President
Obama signed health care reform into law. Following
Yahoo's tracking of the Dow Jones, the market on April
1 2010 was at 10,927. On August 17, over two years
later, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was pegged at
<a href="http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/.DJIA"
target="_hplink">13,264</a>. Granted, the
market could still take a nose dive. But odds are it
won't be because of health care reform.
Michelle
Bachmann: Obama Taking 'The Final Leap To
Socialism'
In a radio interview Minnesota Congresswoman
Michelle Bachmann gave with Bill Bennet in March of
2009, the Minnesotan claimed that Obama's policies
were representing the "final leap into socialism,"
<a
href="http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2009/03/05/36590/buchmann-thwart-obama/"
target="_hplink">Think Progress</a> reported.
But alas, while Bachmann's sensational claim may have
gotten her into the spotlight, the government has been
engaged in selling its stake in the industries that it
had to temporarily prop up. General Motors, an
automaker that the U.S. government had to prop up with
emergency capital, bought back all preferred shares
held by the U.S. Treasury as of December 2010, reports
<a
href="http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2010/12/16/g-m-buys-back-2-1-billion-preferred-shares/"
target="_hplink"><em>The New York
Times</em></a>. Wall Street's largest
banks that have frequently brought about wrath from
liberals such as <a
href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/18/opinion/18krugman.html?_r=1&ref=paulkrugman"
target="_hplink">Paul Krugman,</a> like Citi,
Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, are still privately run.
Glenn Beck:
U.S. Will Go Through 'Great Depression Times 100' (Or
Hyperinflation)
In early 2010, then-Fox News commentator Glenn
Beck said that the U.S. was likely in for a "Great
Depression Times 100," reports <a
href="http://mediamatters.org/mmtv/201001050049"
target="_hplink">Media Matters</a>, going on
to say that the country would experience a period of
hyperinflation. Unemployment during the Great
Depression peaked at around 25 percent, according to
an article published by <a
href="http://www.bls.gov/opub/cwc/cm20030124ar02p1.htm"
target="_hplink">the Bureau of Labor
Statistics</a>. But even at the worst moments of
the Great Recession, unemployment only reached
slightly above 10 percent. Presently, it is <a
href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/03/unemployment-rate-jobs-report-bls_n_1736843.html"
target="_hplink">at 8.3 percent</a>,
according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. With
inflation estimated to remain stagnant at 1.5 percent
through 2012, the nightmare warnings of hyperinflation
expounded by Beck as well as by renowned "economist"
<a
href="http://www.cobdencentre.org/2010/10/peter-schiff-dollar-hyperinflation-is-coming-unless-policy-direction-is-rapidly-changed/"
target="_hplink">Peter Schiff</a> appears to
be just that. A nightmare.
Rick
Santelli: 'Stagflation Is Almost A Certainty'
In October of 2009, CNBC analyst and Tea Party
founder Rick Santelli told said on the show Fast Money
that he believed <a
href="http://65.55.53.237/id/15840232?video=1287468464&play=1"
target="_hplink">"stagflation is almost a
certainty."</a> In other words Santelli was
predicting that America would go through a period of
high inflation and high unemployment. The only
question he had was when. In November of that year,
<a href="http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpid0910.pdf"
target="_hplink">the Bureau of Labor
Statistics</a> revealed that between October
2008 and October 2009, prices rose by 1.7 percent not
including food and gas. This made, at the time,
Santelli's claim even bolder. Even though unemployment
is still high -- almost three years later -- inflation
has risen far below the Federal Reserves 2 percent
annual target, <a
href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-14/romney-ryan-see-fed-qe-as-inflation-risk-amid-low-prices.html"
target="_hplink">Bloomberg
reports.</a>
Rush
Limbaugh: Obamacare Will Leave 250 Million People
Uninsured
Among the many predictions conservative radio host
Rush Limbaugh has made over the years, the one he made
on March 8, 2010 was not one of his best. On his daily
radio show <em>The Rush Limbaugh
Show</em>, Limbaugh announced to his listeners
that healthcare reform, which would be signed into law
later that month, would end up leaving 250 million
Americans uninsured, <a
href="http://mediamatters.org/mmtv/201003080025"
target="_hplink">Media Matters</a> reported.
As of June 2012, 49.9 million Americans do not have
health insurance, <a
href="http://www.cnn.com/2012/06/27/politics/btn-health-care/index.html"
target="_hplink">CNN
estimated</a>.
Mitt Romney:
U.S. WIll Default If We Raise Debt Ceiling
In the <a
href="http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1106/13/se.02.html"
target="_hplink">June 13, 2011 Republican
Presidential Debate</a>, Mitt Romney, when asked
about the consequences of not raising the debt limit
answered the moderator's question with a question.
"Well, what happens if we continue to spend time and
time again, year and year again more money than we
take in?" As Asher Smith pointed out on <a
href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/asher-smith/republican-debate-economy_b_876899.html"
target="_hplink"><em>The Huffington
Post</em></a>, this can only mean that the
U.S. will eventually be unable to pay off its
obligations and, as a result, default. Bit as of
August 2012, close to one year after the debt ceiling
was raised, the U.S. still hasn't defaulted.
Bill Gross:
End Of QE2 Would Cause Bond Yields To Go 'Much
Higher'
In March of 2011, PIMCO Co-Founder Bill Gross
predicted an imminent spike in treasury bond yields
following the end of the Federal Reserve's
Quantitative Easing program, <a
href="http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/03/02/gross-warns-qe2s-end-could-sink-markets/"
target="_hplink"><em>Fortune's</em>
Colin Barr reported</a>. Bond yields, Gross told
reporters, were likely to go "higher maybe even much
higher" at the end of June 2011 when QE2 ended. The
10-year treasury bond yield has since fallen. Since
the 2011, 10-year bond rates have hovered between 2.5
and 1.5 percent, according to <a
href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USGG10YR:IND/chart"
target="_hplink">Bloomberg</a>.
Joe Biden: US
Out Of Recession In 18 Months (Feb. '09)
In February of 2009, Vice President Joe Biden
predicted that the federal stimulus package being
implemented by Barack Obama's administration would
"literally drop kick us out of this recession," <a
href="http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/801-economy/114661-gop-reminds-biden-of-missed-prediction-on-the-recovery"
target="_hplink"><em>The
Hill</em></a> reported. "This
[stimulus] is about getting this out and spent
in 18 months to create 3.5 million jobs." Technically,
the recession ended during the third fiscal quarter of
2009, <a
href="http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdp_glance.htm"
target="_hplink">according to the Bureau of
Economic Analysis</a>. But with unemployment
hovering around over 8 percent for the last three
years, some economists are no longer talking about
calling the current economic period a recovery. Brad
DeLong, an economist with UC Berkley, told readers on
his blog in 2011 that we're now in the midst of a
<a
href="http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2011/06/the-little-depression.html"
target="_hplink">"Little Depression"
instead.</a>
Peter Schiff:
Inflation At 20 Percent By 2009
Economist Peter Schiff stated that the Federal
Reserves monetary policies would lead to 20 percent
inflation within one year. The statement, made in
October 2008 on <a
href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jB9fuIvksLw"
target="_hplink">Glenn Beck's former CNN
program</a>, was proven wrong. During 2009,
<a
href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi"
target="_hplink">the U.S. actually experience
deflation.</a>
Ron Paul:
Beware Of Runaway Inflation
Congressman Ron Paul believed that runaway
inflation was "just horrendous" in May 2011, he said
during an appearance on <a
href="http://www.ronpaul.com/2009-05-12/ron-paul-warns-against-runaway-inflation/"
target="_hplink">Fox Business News</a>. <a
href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi"
target="_hplink">When Congressman Paul made that
statement</a>, inflation was pegged at 3.2
percent and, after peaking at 3.9 percent that
October, inflation has steadily fallen to 1.4 percent
in July 2012.
Source: www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/22/university-of-colorado-pr_n_1822933.html?icid=maing-grid10%7Chtmlws-sb-bb%7Cdl1%7Csec1_lnk3%26pLid%3D195989